Ukrainegate is simple. Trump stands accused of a crime of utterance, employing gangster tactics to coerce another country into prosecuting a political rival. Do those words add up to High Crimes and Misdemeanors? Personally, I think the idea is preposterous, but it is definitely a political question that can be answered with a simple yes or no.
An even simpler impeachment case that would be in response to Trump’s ordering his lawyer to spend campaign funds to pay off former girlfriends. The bag man in that case is already in jail. Crickets from the Democrats on that . . . .
Pelosi could easily bring an impeachment vote to the floor of the House in January. I certainly hope she does.
What if the Dems piddle around until June or later to Impeach? The trial in the Senate would then upstage the political conventions, and Trump’s die-hard supporters in the Senate can be counted on to delay a final vote until after Trump gets re-nominated.
So let’s say we wind up with a conviction vote of 75-25. Trump leaves office and Pence takes the oath. The Republicans then are obliged to revoke the nomination, and after that to get the names on the ballot changed in all 50 states. That gives 50 local MAGA groups a chance to disrupt the works within each state. I do not agree with those who fear Trump leading a civil war, but it is likely that his supporters will act out.
Meanwhile, you can expect litigation from hell in this scenario.
Finally, if the trial goes into October, it would not be possible to change the ballots. To add spice to this What If?, lets say the Democrats nominate Joltin’ Joe Biden or some other Clintonish loser. Let’s say this juices the Third Party movement up to 10% or more of the vote. We could be looking at Citizen Trump winning his second election. That would cause a bit of a ruckus.
I conclude this speculation with two words: